Going back as far as the irrational exuberance or conundrum days of Fed Chief Greenspan, we have seen the cracks in the confidence of economists, and especially Fed officials, as they scratch their heads publicly and wonder about the discrepancies between their model outcomes and what they see happening in front of themselves with their own eyes.
At the highest level, my thesis is traditional measures aren’t capturing the kinds of economic activity that are evolving around and outside of institutionalized environments. Basically, I think shadow banking, darknet commerce, as hinted at here: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/chainalysis-darknet-market-activity-nearly-doubled-throughout-2018/ , barter and exchange commerce, and other commercial innovations or adaptations are thriving. While these commercial channels thrive, they also substitute and replace some of the traditional, institutional economic activities, leaving holes in metrics like the labor participation rate, unemployment rate, GDP and other measures. I expect the trend in commercial innovation to continue in this way, leading to risk of some potential missteps by pundits and officials.
There are a number of other significant pressures mounting on outdated financial structures, like mortgage servicing rights, the reserve currency, or euro-dollar system. Increasingly, it appears as though corruption has packed itself deeply into the cracks in these broken systems. I don’t expect dispassionate minds will step back timely and marshal to address these outmoded systems as they give their final snap. I expect it to be pretty rough and ugly.